A bias for action can be helpful when the way forward is clear. But when things are in flux, sometimes the best course of action is to prepare and get your team oriented.
My bias towards action was high this week. Every instinct told me to move fast. Like that moment when you activate the BCP or your emergency response protocols.
Commentary resulting from this week’s US tariff announcements was coming together as a familiar pattern – with parallels to the confluence of events after 9/11, during the GFC or when supply chains seized up during the pandemic.
I’ve felt this kind of build-up before. Different shape, same energy.
After many years of working with futurists and in black swan hunting, my instinct was that one or more big shifts were waiting for a catalyst to kick them off, and this was it.
It’s not that I know exactly what’s coming — it’s that I’ve learned to recognise what it feels like right before the wave forms.
When the pattern starts forming, my bias for action tells me to act, particularly if things are becoming clear to me and might not yet be clear to others. After all, this is what leaders do right?
Well yes, and no.
After today’s walk back on tariffs, I’m less sure than I was about timing. And it’s a helpful reminder that action is not always the right course. Particularly when things are not yet clear.
Let’s step back to what we know.
There are several undercurrents that suggest that world trade, value chains, market, geopolitics, the way we work and where we do it are poised for a pattern shift.
Like a big surf break in clear water, things can look clear and stable. Or in frothy water, hard to see what’s going on at all. But deep down there are often huge currents and movements that are not obvious from the surface.
Experienced surfers watch the currents and the rips and pay less attention to the whitewater. Not doing so is where less experienced swimmers get in trouble.
Put another way, the white water is the noise. The underlying tides, currents and rips are the signal. Experienced surfers use these to their advantage. Less experienced swimmers get caught out.
There is a parallel here for leaders.
Leaders create clarity, calm and confidence, even when the world is moving around them.
To do this, the challenge for leaders is to separate signal from noise, and if the distinction isn’t clear, to create time, space and discipline to get clear. It’s not to rush in, or give in to impulse or default reactions.
There is a saying in aviation: There are old pilots, and there are bold pilots, but there are no old bold pilots.
Conversely, there are old surfers. And there are bold surfers.
But there are also old, bold surfers.
Those who have mastered this – the ones able to read the conditions – who know how to read the changing currents, use the rips to their advantage, who know when to watch for a bit longer before paddling in, and knowing that you need to be ready to paddle hard when it’s time.
Many of these big shifts won’t show up in your risk register — not yet. Most of what’s logged there is just the white water – the events that happen when there are minor changes in the white water.
But the currents are shifting.
Unless you understand the big trends, know your dependencies and where those show up in your value chain, you’re managing turbulence, not setting direction.
The role for leaders is to help their teams make sense of what’s happening, separate signal from noise, create a shared context for decision making, keep their team oriented before paddling in, and make sure they’re match fit when the time comes.
These are some of the throughlines in our work. We’ll be sharing more in the coming editions. In the meantime, it’s time to get ready. If you need a playbook for doing this, please get in touch.
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Tags: #strategy #clarity #foresight #leadingduringuncertainty