Due to popular demand, our presentation on Futurecasting is now available at the bottom of this post. 

The presentation was delivered at the NSW ACL user group forum to a group of data analytic and IT audit experts to give them some insights into what the future might hold.

One of the key insights from the presentation is that predictive models now hold less certainty and that 1 in 20 year company transforming events are now looking like 1 in 5 year events, potentially with greater force than previously. 

There are a number of things that can be done about this in terms of creating opportunities and preparing for change based on information in this slide deck, but perhaps a more important theme is the need to create dynamic and flexible organisations which can anticipate and cope with the extent of change that will become even more a fact of life.  Those managers and entrepreneurs who are able to do this will be the winners in the decades to come. 

Watch this space for related discussions in resiliance theory, 21st century capability, open platfrom innovation systems and related topics, or better still, read Larry Quick’s work at http://www.newcommons.com/.  Larry is our man for future thinking and has an amazing tendancy to predict things like the internet and climate change 5-15 years before they reshape the planet.  We are great fans of his provocative and insightful thinking and proud to have an alliance with him.

For a copy of our presentation from the TDA conference, click here.

Postcript

Larry and I are now partners in Resilient Futures.  Resilient Futures is a group of strategists, urban planners, environmentalists and a range of other practitioners who are using resilience thinking as a model to develop resilient organiations.  I’m very excited about this work, and encourage you to find out more at http://www.resilientfutures.org.

If you downloaded the futurecasting presentation and find it insightful, then you’ll want to subscribe to the Resilient Futures newsfeed.  Just follow the prompts on the RF website.

Note: Larry assures me that he is not a futurist, but what I do know is that the Resilient Futures model has an uncanny predictive capability that I do not normally see in risk, scenario planning or policy environments.

Thanks to everyone who attended the Canberra meeting, it was great bunch of people with some great questions and discussion and a relaxed format. 

There was a particular interest in what this will mean to other sectors.  While it’s difficult to predict in detail, I’d suggest that the one to watch is the new recommendation 7.2.  The crux of the wording of this is that rather than just going through a process, management now need to form a view on whether their risks are being effectively managed and report this through to the Board.  This means that risk management can no longer suffice as a standalone process, but must be truly embedded into the governance processes of the organisation, and that due diligence will have to be done on the output of any risk process.  As I found in my last head of audit & risk role, such a signoff requires significant gear changes in thinking to make it effective and relevant.  It’s going to be an exciting time for risk management for those people on the front foot.

Download the presentation here:
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